Top 10: Super Bowl Champions

WhatIfSports.com used its free NFL SimMatchup technology (you could do this too!) to simulate the 42 Super Bowl champions against one another -- 100 times each. This means that each team played 4,100 games and 86,100 games were played in total. At the end, we looked at all of the games and ranked teams by winning percentage to find the top 10. This is the most accurate and thorough approach to answering “the question.”

The conclusion may not be “the 2007 New England Patriots,” but the question is still relevant -- and WhatIfSports.com has a definitive answer.

The debate in question is precisely why the site exists and it’s one of the major reasons why sports talk radio exists. It is why we all talk sports with our fathers and grandfathers, just like we do or will with our children and grandchildren. That’s because the conversation concerns historical context. On the heels of one of the most exciting and dramatic Super Bowls ever, and with so much recent discussion about NFL history, the specific question is; “Which team was the greatest Super Bowl champion of all time?” Or, more appropriately, “what if” the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins and other elite teams played all of the other Super Bowl champions? The answer: The Dolphins would win just more than 60% of the time, while the 1985 Chicago Bears and 1999 St. Louis Rams would each win well over 70% of their games.

When running these games, the simulation engine factors in actual regular season statistics that are adjusted equally on a historical and relative (to other teams that season and to strength of schedule) basis. This means that if a team or player had a record-breaking rushing season against a schedule that includes very weak rush defenses, the team or player will still perform well, but may not perform as well it did that year. This also means that the computer does not have to try to figure out how a 230-pound offensive lineman can block a 330-pound defensive tackle. Everything is in the numbers and relative to the context of that season.

Record has nothing to do with this analysis, but do not confuse that with a neglect for “heart” or “clutch.” Strengths, weaknesses, consistency, comfort under pressure, and the like are all “intangible” factors that show through in the numbers. And teams with better numbers typically win -- especially when the games are played often.

The 2007 New York Giants rank No. 23. Although the Giants looked like the better team in Super Bowl XLII, it was still an upset. Had the Patriots just won, they would appear among the top few on this list. Now they are not on it. That is how big that game was.

The top 10 Super Bowl champions list starts with a bit of a surprise:

Number 10

1972 Miami Dolphins

Winning percentage: 60.7%

We would even go so far as to say that the undefeated Dolphins were very lucky. The team had a good running game, yet it was relatively one-dimensional on offense and the defense allowed some poor rushing teams to do well on the ground. Miami also played one of the weakest overall schedules of any team on this list and it shows in the ranking. That being said, the Dolphins were clearly the best team that year and have good numbers across the board, yet there’s really nothing outstanding about the team.

The list of the best Super Bowl champions has just begun…

The very lucky part is in the “0” (as Mercury Morris would say). Resimulating the games from 1972, the Dolphins are a 77% favorite on average in their 17 games. That sounds dominant, but, even as a big favorite, the chance of winning those 17 games is 1.2%, and the fact that they did means they were very lucky. For comparison purposes, the Patriots were a 92% favorite on average in their first 17 games this season. The chance of winning all of those games was 24.2% -- still not likely, but not necessarily “lucky.”

Number 9

1994 San Francisco 49ers

Winning percentage: 62.4%

Steve Young’s 1994 season is the epitome of statistical efficiency from the quarterback position. Young completed 70.3% of his passes for more than eight yards per attempt, threw just one interception every 45 passes and averaged 5.1 yards per carry on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns. In the conference championship, the 49ers defeated a Cowboys team that won three of four Super Bowls by 10 points and then routed the San Diego Chargers 49-26. Young, the NFL and Super Bowl MVP, had six touchdowns in the finale. He definitely made his lone championship season as the 49ers starter count.

Number 8

1996 Green Bay Packers

Winning percentage: 62.8%

A team with no glaring weakness, the 1996 Green Bay Packers scored the most points in the league and allowed the least points. Yet, what sets this squad apart from other balanced teams on this list may be the special teams. Desmond Howard averaged an astounding 15.1 yards per punt return, taking three back for touchdowns in the regular season.

Number 7

1992 Dallas Cowboys

Winning percentage: 63.2%

Some may contend that the 1993 (No. 14 on this list) team was better, but the 1992 team was more balanced overall. This Cowboys squad is one of the top 10 Super Bowl champs in passing, avoiding sacks and stopping the momentum of opposing teams (aka “bend a little, but don’t break”). They did not cause many turnovers or get many sacks, but they did not need to because the offense was not allowing those things either -- 52-17 against a team playing in its fourth-straight Super Bowl looks pretty good too.

Number 6

1984 San Francisco 49ers

Winning percentage: 66.5%

One of two Joe Montana-led teams to crack the top 10, this team may have had one of the top three most efficient offenses in NFL history. Joe Montana averaged more than 8 yards per pass attempt, a full two yards more than his opponents, and the running game picked up 4.6 yards per carry, a half-yard better than the league average. The defense was great at keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone, but that is generally overcome by the other teams in this analysis.

Number 5

1979 Pittsburgh Steelers

Winning percentage: 66.6%

The best Steelers team of the 1970s came at the end of the decade. If you need to see why this team is ranked so high, look at this list of Pro Bowlers: Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, John Stallworth, Jack Ham, Mel Blount, Jack Lambert, Donnie Shell, Mike Webster, L.C. Greenwood, and Joe Greene.

Who do you think the top 4 Super Bowl champions are?

Number 4

1991 Washington Redskins

Winning percentage: 66.8%

Mark Rypien and his Posse rate as the most prolific passing offense of any Super Bowl champion and this Redskins team also gave up the fewest sacks of any team. The rest of their stats were pretty average, but the two facts mentioned are enough to put this team in the top five.

Number 3

1989 San Francisco 49ers

Winning percentage: 68.2%

The best 49ers team on this list, the 1989 team combined the offensive efficiency of the previous Bill Walsh-coached teams with the defensive mentality of new Head Coach George Seifert. That season, the 49ers recovered 11 more fumbles and intercepted 11 more passes than their opponents.

Number 2

1985 Chicago Bears

Winning percentage: 74.9%

As the winning percentages suggest, there are two elite teams on this list and the 1985 Chicago Bears are clearly one of them. They have the most dominant defense of any Super Bowl champion and, they have Walter Payton. The passing offense is the only minor weakness, lacking true explosion and turning the ball over against ball-hawking teams like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1971 Dallas Cowboys and 2003 New England Patriots. The main difference between No. 1 and No. 2 on this list is that the margin for error of a team that’s strength is in the running game is much narrower than the margin for error of a team that can pass the ball effectively. The Bears may not get behind much, but when they do, they cannot catch up easily.

Number 1

1999 St. Louis Rams

Winning percentage: 77.1%

This ranking may surprise most people, but the “Greatest Show on Turf” was also the greatest single-season team in NFL history. Fans generally think of this as a pass-heavy offense, yet it is the running game and opportunistic defense that set this apart from teams like the 1991 Redskins and 2006 Colts. The Rams actually rank as the third most efficient rushing Super Bowl champion of all time as well as one of the best passing teams ever. Marshall Faulk averaged 5.5 yards per carry to go with an astonishing 12.0 yards per reception out of the backfield. The Rams also forced 14 more interceptions than they threw en route to outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game, which is the highest average margin of victory on this list. The defense was pretty good too. Without Mike Jones’ last-second stop in the Super Bowl, this team may be in the same category as the 2007 Patriots.

“Lightning in a bottle”; “flash in the pan”; “perfect storm”; pick your cliche and they might have been it in 1999, but there is no doubting that the 1999 St. Louis Rams are the best Super Bowl champions the sport has ever seen.

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