Point-calculation engine says Boston's starters have series edge
A point-analysis metric developed by NBA statisticians and Lenovo Group Ltd. engineers predicts that the Boston Celtics will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals based on the statistically superior play of Boston's five top players when they have shared the court in the playoffs. The Finals started Thursday night with Boston winning the first game in the best-of-seven series.Lenovo Stat, a plus/minus algorithm featured on NBA.com, shows that Boston should win the series because the Celtics' top players have had a bigger effect on the outcome of their games compared with the Lakers' highest five scorers. The stats tool calculates the point differential of how a player or combination of players performs when its on the court, said Michael Gliedman, senior vice president and CIO of National Basketball Association Inc.
This is the second season in which the NBA used Lenovo Stat to measure "teamwork" and in-game player effectiveness, he said. The statistical analysis tool works by giving a combination of players a plus when they score and a minus when they're scored upon by opponents. Those results are added in real time to box scores on NBA.com during games.
The algorithm analyzes each scoring event during a game to assess the productivity of each player combo against a given point in time. The analysis can be applied to a single player, five players or any number in between, said Gliedman.
According to current Lenovo Stat rankings, Boston's top five-player combination -- Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo -- scored a +79 rating. By comparison, the Lakers' top-five unit -- Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Vladimir Radmanovic -- notched a +66 postseason rating.
The +13 point differential could prove to be a sizable advantage for Boston over Los Angeles because a team's top players traditionally spend the bulk of the game on the floor and have the greatest impact on the outcome.
Boston's top five have never played in an NBA Finals game. By contrast, Laker forwards Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher were part of three NBA championship teams from Los Angeles between 2000 and 2002.
This year's championship marks the 11th time the Celtics and Lakers have faced off in the NBA Finals. Although the Celtics won eight of the previous 10 matchups, the Lakers won the most recent series against Boston in 1985 and 1987.
"It's a classic combo of teams, and you're going to add this enhancement of technology to go against it, which is something we didn't have before in previous [NBA Finals] matchups," Gliedman said.
Lenovo Stat information is collected courtside at 29 NBA arenas on Lenovo ThinkPad X60 Tablets by statisticians who log approximately 500 pieces of data in during each game. The data is delivered to a Sybase database at the NBA's data center in New York for analysis before being quickly pushed out to the NBA.com site, as well as televisions, mobile phones and other distribution points, Gliedman noted.
Gliedman said that the NBA plans to enhance Lenovo Stat in the future so fans can see player and team stats in dream matchups. For example, the tool could square off the 2007-2008 Celtics against the 1985-1986 NBA Champion Celtics squad, which featured NBA legends Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish.
"We're taking all of [NBA] history and applying those algorithms against it. It's on the road map and definitely something we plan on doing with it," he added.
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