"This could be the biggest-bet game ever," predicts Chuck Esposito, assistant vice president of race and sports book operations at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. But Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton's race and sports book, counters the only game that would generate $100 million in "action," or betting, would be Tom Brady's Patriots vs. Brett Favre's Green Bay Packers.
Some sports books thought the Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI would crack $100 million last year. Instead, the $93 million handle fell $1.5 million short of the record $94.5 million bet on Super Bowl XL between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, according to Frank Streshley, senior analyst at the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
Both Caesars and the Hilton installed the Patriots as 14-point favorites as soon as Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes drilled his game-winning field goal Sunday (The Fox NFL Sunday crew even quoted the 14-point opening line by sports analyst Danny Sheridan). Heavy betting on the Giants led the two books to drop their lines to 12 points by Wednesday.
The favored Patriots failed to cover the point spread at home in their two playoff victories, against the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Diego Chargers, says Sheridan.
Eli Manning's Giants, meanwhile, beat the spread in all three of its road playoff wins, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Packers. The Giants also covered the spread in their 38-35 home loss to the Patriots in Week 17.
There's been "a non-stop flow of Giants money; 80% of the bets have been on the Giants," says Kornegay. Things could change quickly. Esposito predicts the spread could fall further, inducing more Patriots fans to bet their cash. Most Super Bowl bets are placed in the final 72 hours before kickoff. "Twelve is kind of a dead number," Esposito says.
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