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Saturday, January 26, 2008

The Only Correct 2008 NFL Playoff Projections

AFC

This is the American Football Conference. It's better than the National Football conference because it's American. What nation do you represent, National Football Conference? It could be anything. It could be North Korea. It could be fucking Andorra and, let me tell you, that's barely even a nation.

New England Patriots


Yes, I am a hater. I would love to see the Patriots lose. I don't want to see anybody get hurt; I don't particularly want to see the Colts or Jaguars win; I don't even really care if they get beaten solidly by another team. What I'm looking for is a meltdown of historic proportions. I want hubris to overtake the Patriots in a Shakespearean maelstrom of self-destruction and imploding egos. I want a devastating parable for our time.

That said, there is almost no chance that the Patriots lose a game. They are too talented and too well-coached. No, they haven't been destroying everyone lately, but they still managed to win every game they played, even considering the fact that they had the toughest NFC division on their schedule. Someday, Boston fans will pay for their tri-sport dominance, but it won't be this year, pray/curse as we all might.

Oh, and a memo to whoever said, "Cheaters never win": apparently, there are some instances in which cheaters only win and never, ever lose.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a great team, and pretty much any other year, the story would probably be all about their road to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. And it's possible that that could still happen. It may not be particularly likely, but it is possible. It may have only taken a little thing, like Green Bay agreeing to give up a fourth round pick for Randy Moss, to tip the scales in that direction. Still, no one stands a better chance against the Patriots than the Colts, and with any luck it'll at least be mildly exciting.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have been rolling down the stretch on the wheels of LaDainian Tomlinson, winning six games in a row by a double digit average margin. Of course, a closer look reveals that those six teams all suck to varying degrees, but that doesn't take as much away from the Chargers as it would in a less parity-dominated sport like baseball or Balkan yak-fighting, which -- although a fictional sport -- is dominated by a powerful warlock. Are you still paying attention? The weather in San Diego is nice. You left after you read about the Patriots and Colts, didn't you? Eh... you won't answer. You never do.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars seem like they should be a trendy pick to sneak into the AFC championship or beyond due to their stingy defense, explosive running game, efficient passing game and excellent play down the stretch of the season. In other words: because they're good. That said, giving up 42 points to the Texans on the final week of the season probably wasn't the tune-up head coach Jack Del Rio was looking for. I'd expect something of a bounce-back against the Willie Parker-less Steelers, but beyond that, they're probably overmatched. Also, my years of fantasy football experience tell me that Fred Taylor is now about two years overdue to shatter on the field into a series of prisms which, when the sun passes through them, spell -- on the 50 yard line -- the words, "Thank you for taking me in the first round of your 2001 fantasy draft, you fucking numbskull." And I will reply, "You're welcome, I'm not bitter about that at all."

Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone's saying it. If they aren't, they should be: Pittsburgh peaked at the wrong time. I'm not talking about the Steelers, though, I just think Pittsburgh as a city shot its wad in the 70s. But, yeah, it's true about the Steelers, too. Early in the season, they looked like a top five team. Now they look like a dying rust belt city. It's almost as if they lost the NFL's leading rusher to a season ending injury or something.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have employed one of the most easily recognizable methods to make the playoffs: a sturdy defense, a ball-control-oriented offense and a quarterback capable of making game-changing plays for either team. A steadier field general might have guided the Titans and their underrated receiving corps to more than 10 wins, but Young is obviously still pretty... uh... youthful. The Titans' defense keeps them in most games, so they might be a good contender for an wild card upset. On the other hand, they might be the worst team in the playoffs -- particularly if Albert Haynesworth can't go full speed -- so they might be a good contender for crying through a muddy facemask.

NFC

It's not that I don't love you, NFC, but word is the league is looking to officially change your name to "That Other Conference, Which Also Has Some Teams (Although I'm Warning You Beforehand, They're Not As Good)". It's sort of a work in progress.

Dallas Cowboys

They may not have played very well since beating the Packers, and they might have lost their best receiver indefinitely when TO sprained his ankle, and they might be blocking the path of a horde of stampeding Redskins, but they still have 11 pro-bowlers, they still won 13 games, and the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC still has a bump in it roughly the size of Texas Stadium's crown.

Packers

As happy as the Packers may be with guard Allen Barbre and linebacker Desmond Bishop, does anybody out there still think it might have benefited them to move on Randy Moss with the pick they used to trade for those two players instead? And I say that both as a fan of the Packers and as someone who was irritated to see a rejuvenated Randy Moss land in the one place outside of Indiana where he could do the most damage. Maybe it would've all backfired, though. On the plus side, pretty much everything else GM Ted Thompson did worked out, and the Packers were able to win 13 games, good enough for a bye week and a slightly better chance at sacrificing themselves to the Patriots.

Giants

If Eli Manning could play every week the way he played in the first three quarters against the Patriots last week, people would stop comparing him to his brother. Alright, maybe that's not realistic -- but at least there would be something to discuss. Obviously it's not entirely Manning's fault that the Giants have been viewed as underachieving during his tenure. Plenty of Giant fans and observers probably blame Tom Coughlin. The fact is, however, that when people draw up their projections of how the Giants are going to play in a given season, they keep expecting that Eli Manning will improve. That he'll learn. That he'll become more like his brother. The fact that he hasn't yet is what leaves the Giants steadily in the also-ran, almost-contending category. Can the Giants replace him with someone better? That's highly questionable, so there's likely to be at least a year or two more of waiting on the younger Manning brother.

Seahawks

Again, the parity of the NFL is such that it's hard to single out the teams that you're just going to assume have no chance, which is something that you pretty much have to do when you're trying to draw up a projected playoff bracket. Ultimately, what makes Seattle stand out in this regard is a lack of stand-outs. They're above average everywhere but great nowhere. Standard "any given Sunday" caveats apply, but the Seahawks aren't going anywhere this year, Mike Holmgren's playoff experience be damned.

Redskins

Although I haven't read any of my peers' projections (they haven't read mine, either, so I don't feel bad), I'd have to guess that this is going to be the trendiest darkhorse pick in the playoff pool. Football is a game played largely on emotion, and there's little that can happen to stir up more emotion than the sudden death of a friend and colleague. The 'Skins have won four in a row, and I can't stay off the bandwagon. Besides, they've always been a talented team. Maybe they were just waiting for Todd Collins to come along? Which reminds me: hey, remember when Todd Collins was horrible? It was really only from that period of time when he got drafted up until around four weeks ago. Life is confusing sometimes.

Buccaneers

You could make the case that the Buccaneers don't really even belong in the playoffs. You could say that they have the worst record of any playoff team. You could point out the fact that they lost three of their final four games to teams who failed to make the playoffs. You could point out the relative weakness of their division, which contains no .500 teams apart from the Bucs themselves, and that if they played in the AFC South, they'd be only one game ahead of the fifth place Texans. But I'm not going to do any of that.

Wild Card Round

San Diego over Tennessee

Haynesworth's patchy health hasn't recovered enough to anchor the Titans for a full game, and they are unable to sufficiently control Tomlinson as a result.

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has found Najeh Davenport to be fairly effective in Parker's absence, but you don't lose the NFL's leading rusher without missing a series of beats.

Washington over Seattle

Everyone is pinning the 'Skins resurgence on Sean Williams (including me to an extent), but it might be a good time to examine Clinton Portis's recent contributions.

Giants over Buccaneers

When in doubt, go with the team with the momentum. I don't have much doubt about this one, but the Giants have the momentum anyway.

Divisional

Indianapolis over San Diego

San Diego's defense has improved from where it was early in the season, but it's still poorly equipped to handle Manning & Co.

New England over Jacksonville

Belichick uses his black magic to resurrect Don Hutson and start him opposite Moss citing a desire to "have all the good players."

Green Bay over Giants

The early season walloping was no fluke. The Giants are an ideal matchup for the Packers.

Redskins over Cowboys

Oops, I accidentally picked an upset. This is going to happen because the Cowboys got complacent after beating the Packers while the Redskins got meaner and hungrier.

Championships

Green Bay over Redskins

Emotion can only carry you so far before your overall lack of talent catches up with you. The Packers get to the immobile Collins all day.

New England over Colts

The real Super Bowl? I could see the Colts taking this, and part of me wonders why I've even bothered doing this write-up if I'm just going to have the Pats win in the end, but that's just the way it's going to be, and nobody can help it. Just accept it and have a beer or ten.

Super Bowl

New England over Green Bay

"So then the Super Bowl came and, yadda yadda yadda, I've never been so drunk while falling out of a tree before." Yes, I plan on yadda yadda-ing the Super Bowl. Apparently I'll rediscover my tree-climbing skills, though.


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